Chiyembekezo cha alimi aku Russia mu 2019 chatsika. Malinga ndi akatswiri, 30% yokha ya makampani amawona chiyembekezo cha chitukuko chabwino cha agro-industrial complex m'chaka chomwe chikubwera - ichi ndi chiwerengero chochepa cha zaka zinayi zapitazi.
Osachepera gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu amakampani ali ndi chiyembekezo chokhudza chitukuko cha agro-industrial complex ku Russia mchaka chomwe chikubwera. Ofufuza a kampani yofunsira Deloitte adafika pamfundoyi mu phunziro la "Agricultural Market Review", lokonzedwa mu Disembala 2018 (likupezeka ku RBC, kafukufukuyu adachitika mgawo lachinayi).
Deloitte wakhala akuchita kafukufuku wotere kuyambira 2015 potengera kafukufuku wamakampani omwe akugwira ntchito muzaulimi. Malingana ndi zotsatira za mayankho a oyankha, akatswiri amawona zizindikiro za ndondomekoyi, zomwe zimachokera ku -1 mpaka 1, pamene chimodzi ndicho zotsatira zabwino kwambiri zowunika. Chifukwa chiyani kuchepa kwa chiyembekezo pakati pa alimi aku Russia komanso momwe zinthu zilili pakali pano mu agro-industrial complex, RBC inamvetsetsa.
Ndi ochepa omwe ali ndi chiyembekezo
Chiwerengero cha makampani omwe ali ndi chiyembekezo chokhudza chitukuko cha agro-industrial complex m'chaka chomwe chikubwera chatsika. Malinga ndi Deloitte, mchaka chonsecho, chizindikiro cha index yowunika zomwe zikuyembekezeka kukula kwa agro-industrial complex zidatsika ndi 7 point, mpaka 0,10 kuchokera 0,17.
"Kwa nthawi yoyamba m'mbiri ya zochitika, chiwerengero cha makampani omwe ali ndi chiyembekezo chokhudza chitukuko cha agro-industrial complex ku Russia kwa chaka chamawa chatsika mpaka 30%," Dmitry Kasatkin, wamkulu wa ntchito zofufuza. m'makampani a Deloitte, adafotokozera RBC. Zaka zapitazo, omwe anali ndi ziyembekezo zabwino anali ochulukirapo: mu 2017 (zoyembekeza za 2018) - 45% ya makampani onse, ndipo mu 2016 (2017) - 40%. Ambiri mwa omwe adafunsidwa sakuyembekezera kusintha kulikonse: gawo lawo linakula ndi 16 peresenti poyerekeza ndi chaka chatha, mpaka 57%.
Kafukufuku wa 2018 wa Deloitte amatchula kukwera mtengo kwa mphamvu zamagetsi, kusowa kwa chithandizo cha boma ndi ndalama, komanso kusowa kwa ogwira ntchito oyenerera monga zovuta zazikulu zamakampani.
Chifukwa Chake Alimi Amakhumudwa
Ofufuza a Deloitte akufotokoza zomwe zikuyembekezeka mu 2019 ndi "zapamwamba": mu 2018, kuchuluka kwamakampani omwe akuwunika momwe zinthu ziliri muulimi waku Russia bwino (ie pamwamba pa avareji) zidalembedwa, akutero Kasatkin. Kumapeto kwa chaka chino, chiwerengero chawo chidzawonjezeka ndi 7 peresenti. ndipo adzawerengera 85% mwa onse omwe adafunsidwa. Poyerekeza: mu 2015, 61% yokha ya omwe adafunsidwa adawona bwino momwe dziko la Russia likukhalira. Malinga ndi mawerengedwe a Deloitte, gawo lalikulu la gawo la kukula kwa phindu mu 2018 lidzakhala ulimi wa nkhumba, kumene phindu lidzakula ndi 2017% poyerekeza ndi 79. Kukula kwa phindu kumayembekezeredwanso pakupanga mbewu. M'makampani a nkhuku, phindu lidzakhalabe pakalipano, kuchepa kumayembekezeredwa kwa opanga mkaka.
Kuchepa kwa chiyembekezo pakati pa alimi a ku Russia "kukuwoneka ngati zoona," anatero katswiri wa Gazprombank Daria Snitko. Zoyembekeza za omwe akutenga nawo mbali pa msika zimatengera, malinga ndi malingaliro ake, ndi zinthu ziwiri. Choyamba, makampaniwa alibe chidziwitso chomveka bwino cha momwe pulogalamu yatsopano yothandizira boma la agro-industrial complex idzawoneka, yomwe ndi yofunika kwambiri polimbikitsa makampani ndi kupanga ndalama. Makamaka, omwe akutenga nawo gawo pamsika samamvetsetsa zomwe zidzachitike pazithandizo pansi pa pulogalamu ya boma ya ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pomanga nyumba zotenthetsera kutentha. Mfundo yachiwiri ndi zomwe msika ukuyembekezera pokhudzana ndi kufunikira kwa ogula.
Zoyembekeza zopanda chiyembekezo zamakampani azaulimi zimagwirizana kwambiri ndi momwe chuma chikuyendera, osati momwe zinthu zilili pamakampaniwo, akutero Vitaly Sheremet, wamkulu wa malo ogwirira ntchito ku KPMG yazaulimi ku Russia. “Chuma chonse chilibe zabwino ndi ndalama, ndipo izi zimayika alimi amphamvu,” adatero. M'zaka zaposachedwa, mbiri ya agrarians yakula, Sheremet akuti: tsopano akuphatikiza osati okhawo omwe amagwira ntchito mwachindunji pamtunda, komanso "gulu lonse la opanga chakudya kuchokera kumunda kupita ku kauntala." Zinthu ndi zabwino kwa opanga zinthu zomalizidwa: makamaka, confectioners ali okonzeka kupanga kawiri pofika 2024, akutero. Kwa olima maluwa azikhalidwe, chaka chino chinali chabwino kwambiri pazachuma kuposa chomaliza, zolemba za Sheremet. Mu 2018, zokolola za tirigu zinakwana matani 110 miliyoni, zomwe ndi zochepa kuposa zotsatira za chaka chatha za matani 135,4. Chotsatira chake, mitengo yambewu inakwera: malinga ndi gwero la analytical ProZerno, kuyambira pa December 14, mtengo wa tirigu wachitatu. 60% kuposa mu December 2017 (13,2 zikwi motsutsana 8,3 zikwi rubles pa tani). Zomwe zili ndi chithandizo cha boma, pamene boma silikukwaniritsa udindo wake wakale, lingathenso kusokoneza ziyembekezo za olima ulimi, Sheremet akuvomereza.
Cholakwika ndi chiyani ndi thandizo la boma kwa alimi
Thandizo la boma ndi chimodzi mwazinthu zitatu zazikulu zomwe zimachititsa mpikisano waulimi waku Russia pamisika yapadziko lonse lapansi, omwe adachita nawo kafukufuku wa Deloitte adanenanso. Mu 2018, alimi anali okhutira kwambiri ndi kulandira chithandizo kuposa chaka chapitacho. Malinga ndi Deloitte, mu 2018 chizindikirochi chinawonjezeka ndi 48% ndipo chinafika pamtengo wa 0,24 (komanso ndi chiwerengero chachikulu cha 1).
M'chaka chomwe chikubwera cha 2019, Unduna wa Zaulimi udalengeza kuchuluka kwa thandizo la boma lomwe likufunika kwa alimi pamlingo wa ma ruble 302 biliyoni. Tsopano ku Russia pali pulogalamu ya chitukuko cha agro-industrial complex mpaka 2020. Kufunika kwa "kukonzanso njira ya pulogalamu ya boma yopititsa patsogolo ulimi" kunalengezedwa mu June ndi Wachiwiri kwa Pulezidenti Alexei Gordeev, yemwe amayang'anira ulimi. Mu pulogalamu yatsopano ya boma, makamaka, ikukonzekera kusintha njira zoperekera chithandizo chimodzi ndi ndalama zothandizira kulipira gawo la ndalama zowonongeka, Elena Fastova, Wachiwiri kwa Mutu wa Unduna wa Zaulimi, adalengeza. Zosintha ziyenera kukhala ndi cholinga chokweza kugulitsa zinthu zaulimi kunja. Monga gawo la lamulo la Meyi la Purezidenti Vladimir Putin, pofika chaka cha 2024 dziko la Russia liyenera kuchulukitsa zogulitsa zaulimi mpaka $45 biliyoni.
Kukula kwa zogulitsa zaulimi ku 2018-2024, malinga ndi kuwerengera kwa Deloitte, kudzapereka chiwonjezeko chokwanira cha GDP mu kuchuluka kwa ma ruble 7,1 thililiyoni. Zosonkhetsa misonkho zomwe zalandilidwa pakuwonjezeka kwa kupanga ndi kutumiza kunja kwa zinthu zaulimi zidzaposa ma ruble 1 thililiyoni. Kukula kwapakati pachaka kwa GDP chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa zogulitsa kunja kudzakhala 2024% mpaka 0,3.
Zomwe zidzachitike pa ulimi wapadziko lonse lapansi
M'zaka khumi zikubwerazi, ulimi wapadziko lonse lapansi, malinga ndi deta ya Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) yoperekedwa mu phunziroli, idzakula pang'onopang'ono. Kukula kwapakati pachaka kudzakhala 1,5%. Kukula kwaulimi kudzakhazikika m'maiko omwe akutukuka kumene, ndi kukula kwachangu komwe kukuyembekezeka ku sub-Saharan Africa ndi Southeast Asia. Kum'mwera chakum'mawa kwa Asia (kuphatikiza China, India, Japan ndi Korea) komwe pafupifupi 40% ya mbewu zapadziko lapansi (kuphatikiza pafupifupi 90% ya mpunga), pafupifupi 40% ya nyama, theka lamafuta a masamba ndi pafupifupi 70% ya nsomba. amapangidwa..
M'chigawo cha Eastern Europe ndi Central Asia, chomwe chimaphatikizapo Russia, kupanga zinthu zaulimi ndi nsomba kudzakula ndi 14%. Derali lilimbitsa udindo wake ngati lachiwiri lalikulu kwambiri pakupanga tirigu ndipo pofika 2027 lidzabweretsa gawo lake pakupanga padziko lonse lapansi pafupifupi 22%. Kupanga chimanga kudzakula ndi 17%, mpendadzuwa ndi rapeseed - ndi 25%.
Kufuna kwapadziko lonse kwazinthu zaulimi kudzakulanso pang'onopang'ono pazaka khumi zikubwerazi, akatswiri a Deloitte akulosera. Izi zili choncho makamaka chifukwa chakuti m'mayiko ambiri mowa watsala pang'ono kufika pachulukidwe. Zoposa theka lazakudya zaulimi zimachokera ku zinthu zisanu zofunika kwambiri: mpunga, chimanga, tirigu, mkaka ndi mkaka, ndi soya. Kufunika kwa chimanga, kupitirira theka la chakudya cha ziweto ndi mafuta achilengedwe, kudzakula ndi 2% pachaka. Kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa mkaka watsopano ndi wokonzedwa padziko lonse kudzakula ndi 2,2% ndi 1,7% pachaka pazaka khumi zikubwerazi, motsatana.
Wolemba: Elena Sukhorukova.
Werengani zambiri pa RBC: https://www.rbc.ru/